The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a leading United States weather agency, has issued a fresh warning over sustained dry conditions across parts of East Africa, including Kenya.
In an advisory published on Thursday, November 20, the agency noted that the region has experienced below-average rainfall for the past two months, resulting in abnormal dryness that is expected to persist.
According to NOAA, most areas in Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Uganda have received little to no rainfall over the past week. The agency observed minimal showers in western Ethiopia, the Lake Victoria Basin, and central Kenya, signalling the continuation of a prolonged dry spell during a season typically associated with short rains.
“Next week, little rainfall is expected in western Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, and southern Uganda. Light to moderate rainfall is expected in Rwanda, Burundi, and much of Tanzania,” the advisory added.
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The delayed and weakened short-rains season is raising concerns over potential impacts on food production and water availability. Analysts warn that if the pattern continues, Kenya and neighbouring countries could face food shortages and other drought-related challenges in the coming months.
Meanwhile, NOAA forecasts heavy rains in southern parts of Africa, with South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, and Namibia expected to receive above-average precipitation.
Back home, the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has echoed NOAA’s warning, predicting continued sunny and dry conditions across most regions, including Nairobi, the Rift Valley, Central Kenya, the Coast, and parts of the Lake Victoria Basin.
In its November 17 bulletin, KMD indicated that only isolated areas—such as Siaya, Kisumu, Homabay, Migori, Trans Nzoia, and Nakuru—may experience light rains.
The department further cautioned residents of Nairobi, Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Tharaka Nithi, and Nyeri to brace for cold nights as chilly conditions persist in the highland east region.
Both agencies are urging governments and communities to monitor advisories closely as the region navigates an increasingly unpredictable climate pattern.
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