Bad News For Gachagua And United Opposition As New Polls In Malava Shows Who Will Win

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The united opposition team in Malava Constituency has thrown its full support behind DAP–Kenya candidate Seth Panyako, solidifying his position as the main challenger to UDA’s David Ndakwa in the upcoming parliamentary by-election.

This comes after DCP party candidate Edgar Busiega dramatically stepped down from the race, a move that left many of his supporters disillusioned but later redirected toward the DAP–Kenya camp.

Panyako, a former nurses’ union leader, has received widespread backing from leaders allied to the Azimio coalition, who view him as the symbol of a united opposition front in Western Kenya.

His campaign has gained traction across the constituency, especially after Busiega’s withdrawal, which effectively reduced the opposition field.

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On the other side, Ndakwa has enjoyed significant support from the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA), under the leadership of President William Ruto.

The President’s close aide, Farouk Kibet, has been stationed in Malava for months, rallying residents to back UDA candidates and ensure the party maintains a political foothold in Kakamega County.

A new opinion poll by Mizani Africa has sparked heated debate across the region. According to the survey, UDA leads in party preference with 37.9%, followed by DAP–Kenya at 24.3%, while 21.3% of respondents remain undecided.

The findings suggest that although UDA currently enjoys a numerical advantage, the contest remains wide open, with voter loyalty appearing fluid.

Political analysts note that while party influence remains strong, individual credibility and grassroots connection will be key in determining the outcome.

With just weeks to the by-election, the battle for Malava is shaping up to be a test of both President Ruto’s political machinery and the opposition’s unity under Seth Panyako.