The Orange Democratic Party (ODM) has suffered a monumental blow following the passing of its long-serving leader, the late Rt. Hon. Raila Amolo Odinga. The veteran politician, who died recently while receiving treatment in India, was not only a towering figure in ODM but also a dominant force in Kenya’s political landscape. His leadership extended beyond the party, shaping the political direction of the entire Luo Nyanza region for over three decades.
Raila Odinga’s influence was unmatched. In Luo Nyanza, his word was law—his decisions were rarely questioned, and those who dared to defy him often paid the price at the ballot box. Political loyalty to Raila was a defining factor in the region’s politics.
Those who went against him were swiftly isolated, while those who sought forgiveness were often welcomed back with open arms. Siaya Governor James Orengo stands as a prime example. Decades ago, Orengo dared to challenge Raila’s authority in Siaya politics but later reconciled with him and became one of his closest allies.
According to political analyst Odoyo, Raila Odinga’s demise might mark the beginning of the end for ODM. “ODM was Raila Odinga. People loved Raila more than they loved the party,” Odoyo noted. “He was the glue that held the movement together.
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His charisma and resilience were the reasons people followed him from one political outfit to another over the years. Without him, ODM risks collapsing under internal divisions.”
Analysts predict that ODM may soon fragment, as regional leaders begin to chart their own political paths in the post-Raila era. Already, conversations are emerging among party members about the need to establish new political entities to maintain their influence ahead of the next general elections.
Raila’s Political Journey Before ODM
Raila Odinga’s political journey is a reflection of Kenya’s evolving multiparty democracy. His career began in the early 1980s when he was associated with the underground reform movement that opposed the one-party regime of President Daniel arap Moi. Following years of detention without trial, Raila became one of the key architects of Kenya’s second liberation.
In 1992, when multiparty democracy was restored, Raila joined the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (FORD), a party led by his father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga. After Jaramogi’s death in 1994, internal wrangles split the movement, and Raila joined FORD–Kenya before later breaking away to form the National Development Party (NDP) in 1997.
In 2001, Raila’s NDP merged with the then ruling party KANU under President Moi, but their alliance collapsed ahead of the 2002 general election. Raila then joined forces with Mwai Kibaki, Kalonzo Musyoka, and others to form the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC), which swept Moi’s regime out of power.
Following differences within NARC, Raila and his allies founded the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) in 2005 after the constitutional referendum. From then on, ODM became his political home and Kenya’s largest opposition movement until his death.
Now, as Kenya mourns Raila Odinga, the question remains: can ODM survive without the man who built it from the ground up?
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