Former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka has firmly declared his intention to vie for the presidency in the 2027 general election. The Wiper Party leader has positioned himself as the main opposition candidate, boldly promising to send President William Ruto home “early in the morning.”
However, political observers and ordinary Kenyans alike believe that before Kalonzo can dream of forging alliances with influential figures such as former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, he must first consolidate his political house in the Ukambani region.
For decades, Kalonzo has been the undisputed kingpin of Ukambani politics, but shifting political dynamics threatens that grip.
The region, which has often provided him with a reliable voting bloc, is now showing signs of division. Unless he addresses these fractures, his national ambitions may remain out of reach.
One of the major headaches confronting Kalonzo is the looming political fallout in Kitui County.
Former Governor Charity Ngilu, a veteran politician with significant grassroots support, is reportedly plotting a comeback in 2027 by reclaiming the gubernatorial seat.
At the same time, Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua, one of Kalonzo’s trusted allies, has also declared his interest in the same seat. This sets the stage for an explosive contest that could split Kalonzo’s inner circle right down the middle.
Should Kalonzo fail to manage this delicate balance, he risks alienating either Ngilu or Wambua both of whom command substantial influence.
A fallout would not only weaken his standing in Kitui but also erode his bargaining power nationally. For a man seeking to rally the entire country behind his candidacy, losing unity at home could prove politically disastrous.
Adding to the complications is the case of Alfred Mutua, the former Machakos Governor and current Cabinet Secretary in President Ruto’s administration.
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Mutua’s presence in government positions him as an alternative voice for the Ukambani electorate, especially those who feel disillusioned with Kalonzo’s long-standing opposition politics.
While Mutua has not outrightly declared his future intentions, his proximity to power and ability to mobilize resources could sway sections of the region away from Kalonzo.
Analysts argue that unless Kalonzo extends an olive branch to Mutua or neutralizes his growing influence, he might struggle to maintain a commanding vote base in Machakos.
Without Machakos firmly in his camp, the narrative of being Ukambani’s sole spokesperson becomes difficult to sustain.
These internal tensions underline why Kalonzo must first secure and unify Ukambani before casting his eyes on Rigathi Gachagua’s political base in Mt. Kenya.
Gachagua, who has carved his influence among sections of the Kikuyu community, would only consider aligning with a leader who demonstrates firm control at home.
As 2027 approaches, Kalonzo’s mission is clear: mend fences, build consensus, and solidify Ukambani behind his candidacy. Without that, any talk of national alliances may remain just that—talk.
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