Vice President Kamala Harris has seen a sharp increase in her chances of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as indicated by betting markets and recent polling data. Just days before the election, Polymarket, a prominent online betting platform, recorded a notable spike in Harris’ odds of victory, reflecting a rapidly changing race as Election Day looms.
According to Polymarket, Harris currently has a 41.4% chance of winning the election, a significant jump from the 33% she held just days earlier on October 30. Conversely, former President Donald Trump’s odds on the platform have dropped, now standing at 58.5% after previously reaching as high as 67% on October 30.
This shift has generated considerable attention, particularly since Trump’s odds on Polymarket have traditionally been stronger than those forecasted by other platforms and analysts.
Polymarket operates as a prediction market where participants buy and sell shares on possible outcomes. The site functions like a stock exchange, with shares fluctuating in value based on users’ investment behavior. A user can buy a share of a Harris victory at the current 41.4% rate; if Harris wins, the share would pay out one dollar per roughly 41 cents invested.
Former President Donald J. Trump. Photo Credit: Getty Images.
This allows bettors to potentially profit by predicting election outcomes, although it also means odds are heavily influenced by individual investors’ moves. Notably, some analysts have questioned the validity of Trump’s odds on Polymarket due to reports that a single user has wagered millions on a Trump win, potentially skewing the data.
Poll Shifts: Iowa and the Midwest in Focus
Harris’ increasing odds on Polymarket coincide with recent polling data indicating unexpected strength in traditionally Republican-leaning states. In a recent Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll conducted by J. Ann Selzer, Harris was shown leading Trump by three points in Iowa, with 47% of the vote compared to Trump’s 44%.
This poll, conducted between October 28 and 31 with a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points, has caused a stir, as Iowa was not previously considered a competitive state for Democrats. Trump won Iowa in both the 2016 and 2020 elections by decisive margins, making Harris’ lead a notable shift.
The Selzer poll also revealed that Harris has been gaining ground among key voter demographics in Iowa. Senior women, who are historically more conservative, favor Harris by a substantial margin of 63% to 28%. Additionally, independent voters—a group Trump carried in previous Iowa polls this year—now favor Harris, with 46% support compared to Trump’s 39%.
Independent women show even stronger support for Harris, backing her by 57% to 29%. These figures underscore a growing gender gap and suggest that Harris is successfully drawing support from voters disillusioned with Trump, particularly women and independents.
Pollster Nate Silver noted in his Silver Bulletin blog that Harris’ unexpected performance in Iowa could be indicative of broader gains in the Midwest. He argued that if Harris pulls off an upset in Iowa, she may also perform well in neighboring swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin, positioning her favorably in the Electoral College.
According to Silver, a win in Iowa might suggest that Harris is appealing to a coalition of suburban and rural voters in key battlegrounds, potentially putting Trump’s path to victory in jeopardy.
Conflicting Poll Results and Uncertainty in Swing States
However, the outcome remains uncertain, as not all polls align with Selzer’s findings. An Emerson College poll released on November 1 shows Trump leading in Iowa by a ten-point margin, with 53% support to Harris’ 43%. This discrepancy highlights the volatile nature of polling and the difficulty in forecasting election results, especially in closely contested states.
Polymarket currently reflects this uncertainty in Harris’ odds across various swing states. The betting platform gives Harris a 59% chance of winning Wisconsin and a 61% chance in Michigan. In contrast, Trump is favored in states like Arizona (77% to 25%), Georgia (66% to 34%), and Pennsylvania (57% to 44%), underscoring the divided electoral map.
The Harris campaign has reportedly shifted its strategy in the final days to capitalize on this momentum, with efforts focused on key Midwestern states and targeting undecided voters. This approach appears to be resonating, as Harris’ odds and polling numbers rise in tandem.
In these final hours before polls open, both campaigns are making a final push, with Trump holding rallies to energize his base and Harris aiming to solidify her gains among female and independent voters.
The outcome will ultimately hinge on voter turnout, particularly in the Midwest, where Harris’ unexpected rise has turned what seemed a decisive Republican stronghold into a potential Democratic breakthrough. As Election Day unfolds, all eyes will be on swing states like Iowa and Michigan, which may well determine the nation’s next president.
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